AlmanacOffensive Scheme and Play-Calling Tendencies
Team Analysis

Offensive Scheme and Play-Calling Tendencies

Decode offensive systems to predict player usage and fantasy value

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Section VII: Team Analysis

Offensive Scheme and Play-Calling Tendencies

Understanding offensive schemes helps you predict player usage patterns and identify fantasy-friendly situations before the market adjusts.

Pass-Heavy vs. Run-Heavy Offenses

Teams' pass-to-run ratios significantly impact fantasy value. Pass-heavy offenses (60%+ pass rate) support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers. Run-heavy offenses (55%+ run rate) concentrate value in the RB position.

Pass-Heavy Offenses (2026):

  • Support WR1, WR2, and TE1
  • QBs provide consistent fantasy value
  • RBs more valuable in PPR due to targets

Run-Heavy Offenses (2026):

  • Workhorse RBs dominate touches
  • WRs see limited targets
  • QBs and TEs less fantasy relevant

Offensive Pace

Teams running 70+ plays per game create more fantasy opportunities. Fast-paced offenses produce higher scoring and more consistent fantasy production.

Pace Metrics:

  • Plays per game
  • Seconds per snap
  • No-huddle frequency

Red Zone Tendencies

Some teams pass heavily in the red zone while others pound the rock. Understanding red zone tendencies helps predict TD distribution.

Pass-Heavy Red Zones:

  • Multiple receivers see TD opportunities
  • TEs valuable in red zone packages
  • RBs less TD-dependent

Run-Heavy Red Zones:

  • RBs dominate TD opportunities
  • WRs/TEs TD-dependent on big plays
  • Goal-line backs extremely valuable

Play-Caller Philosophy

Offensive coordinators have distinct philosophies that persist across teams. Research play-callers' historical tendencies to predict usage patterns.

Personnel Packages

Teams using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) spread the ball around. Teams using 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) concentrate targets on fewer players.

Conclusion

Offensive scheme analysis helps you identify fantasy-friendly situations. Target players in pass-heavy, fast-paced offenses with favorable red zone tendencies. Avoid players in run-heavy, slow-paced offenses unless they're the workhorse RB.

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