Running Back Evaluation and Workload Analysis

Running backs win fantasy championships. Understanding workload metrics and opportunity indicators helps you identify RB1s before the market does.

The Three-Down Back Advantage

RBs who play all three downs (early downs, passing downs, goal line) provide elite fantasy value. These workhorse backs see 18-25 touches per game and dominate fantasy scoring.

Workhorse Indicators:

• 70%+ snap share
• 15+ carries per game
• 4+ targets per game
• Goal-line work

Touch Share Analysis

Target RBs commanding 60%+ of their team's RB touches. High touch share indicates coaching trust and sustainable workloads.

Touch Share Tiers:

• Elite (70%+): True RB1s
• Strong (60-69%): Solid RB2s
• Committee (40-59%): Risky flex plays
• Backup (<40%): Avoid unless injury occurs

Snap Count Trends

Monitor snap count trends weekly. RBs increasing snap share are prime waiver targets before their breakout games.

Snap Share Thresholds:

• 65%+: Elite workload
• 50-64%: Solid opportunity
• 35-49%: Committee role
• <35%: Handcuff/backup

Offensive Line Impact

RBs behind top-10 offensive lines produce more yards per carry and TDs. Evaluate offensive line quality when drafting RBs.

OL Metrics:

• Run block win rate
• Yards before contact
• Stuff rate (runs for 0 or negative yards)

Pass-Catching Value (PPR)

In PPR formats, target-share matters as much as carries. RBs seeing 4+ targets per game provide safe weekly floors.

PPR RB Tiers:

• Elite (6+ targets): CMC, Bijan Robinson
• Strong (4-5 targets): Solid PPR RB2s
• Limited (2-3 targets): Standard league value
• Non-factor (<2 targets): TD-dependent

Age and Durability

RB production declines sharply after age 27. Target RBs aged 23-26 in their athletic prime. Avoid RBs with extensive injury histories.

Handcuff Strategy

Always handcuff your RB1. Backup RBs on run-heavy teams with clear depth charts provide instant RB2 value if the starter gets injured.

Committee Backfields

Avoid committee situations where possible. When forced to choose, target the goal-line back or the pass-catching specialist in PPR.

Draft Strategy

Early Rounds (1-3): Target workhorse RBs with three-down roles and minimal injury risk.

Mid Rounds (4-7): Balance upside (young RBs with opportunity) with floor (proven producers).

Late Rounds (8+): Handcuff your RBs and target high-upside backups in favorable situations.

Waiver Wire Targets

Monitor snap counts and touch trends. RBs increasing from 30% to 50%+ snap share are league-winners waiting to break out.

Conclusion

RB evaluation centers on workload opportunity. Target three-down backs with high touch share, strong offensive lines, and pass-catching ability. Handcuff your stars and monitor snap count trends for waiver wire gems.