Ronin Algorithm Settings
Configure ML models and forecasting parameters
EWMA (Exponential Weighted Moving Average)
Weights recent performance more heavily than historical data
Active
Accuracy
72%
0.30
0.10.5
RTM (Regression to the Mean)
Adjusts extreme performances toward league average
Active
Accuracy
68%
0.15
0.050.3
SOS (Strength of Schedule)
Adjusts projections based on opponent defense strength
Active
Accuracy
65%
0.25
0.10.4
VAP (Value Above Projection)
Measures player performance relative to projections
Active
Accuracy
71%
0.80
0.51
Model Performance Metrics
R² Score, MAE, and RMSE Comparison
- R² Score
- MAE
- RMSE
Algorithm Details
| Algorithm | R² Score | MAE | RMSE | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWMA | 0.72 | 3.20 | 4.10 | Active |
| RTM | 0.68 | 3.80 | 4.70 | Active |
| SOS | 0.65 | 4.20 | 5.10 | Active |
| VAP | 0.71 | 3.30 | 4.20 | Active |
| Ensemble | 0.78 | 2.80 | 3.50 | Recommended |
EWMA Algorithm
Exponential Weighted Moving Average gives more weight to recent performances. Higher alpha values (0.3-0.5) emphasize recent form, while lower values (0.1-0.2) smooth out volatility.
RTM Algorithm
Regression to the Mean adjusts extreme performances back toward league average. Prevents overreacting to outlier performances and provides more stable projections.
SOS Algorithm
Strength of Schedule adjusts projections based on opponent defensive strength. Higher weights increase the impact of schedule difficulty on player projections.
VAP Algorithm
Value Above Projection measures actual performance relative to projections. Identifies consistent over/underperformers and helps identify breakout candidates.