Backtesting Framework
Validate projection accuracy against historical data (2019-2024)
80%
R-Squared
19.7
Mean Abs Error
82%
Top-20 Accuracy
2
Top-20 Misses
Accuracy Over Time
R-Squared and accuracy improvements across seasons
- R-Squared
- Top-20 Accuracy
Season-by-Season Results
| Season | R-Squared | MAE | Top-20 Accuracy | Hits | Misses | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 68% | 28.5 | 72% | 14 | 6 | B |
| 2020 | 61% | 34.2 | 65% | 11 | 9 | C+ |
| 2021 | 74% | 24.1 | 76% | 16 | 4 | B+ |
| 2022 | 71% | 26.8 | 73% | 15 | 5 | B |
| 2023 | 77% | 22.3 | 79% | 17 | 3 | B+ |
| 2024 | 80% | 19.7 | 82% | 18 | 2 | A |