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Projection Engine

Ensemble v2.0

Advanced ensemble methodology combining EWMA, 3-Year Average, RTM, and SOS adjustments

Ensemble Weights
Adjust algorithm weights (must sum to 1.0)
EWMA Weight0.35

Exponentially Weighted Moving Average

3-Year Avg Weight0.30

Three-year historical average

RTM Weight0.20

Regression to Mean adjustment

SOS Weight0.15

Strength of Schedule factor

Total:1.00
Weekly Projection Range
Floor, projected, and ceiling values across the season
123456789101112131415161718Week08162432
  • Ceiling
  • Projected
  • Floor
Player Projections
PlayerPosTeamEWMA3-Yr AvgRTMEnsembleConfidenceFloorCeiling
Deshaun WatsonQB0.00.00.00.070%0.00.0
Joe Mixon (LAR-2022)RB0.00.00.00.072%0.00.0
Aaron Jones (DAL-2024)RB0.00.00.00.073%0.00.0
Jonathan Taylor (SF-2024)RB0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Caleb WilliamsQB0.00.00.00.073%0.00.0
Calvin Ridley (BUF-2023)WR0.00.00.00.072%0.00.0
Jeff Wilson (CIN-2023)RB0.00.00.00.074%0.00.0
Jayden DanielsQB0.00.00.00.077%0.00.0
Kyler MurrayQB0.00.00.00.084%0.00.0
Melvin Gordon (PIT-2024)RB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
Mike Evans (SF-2024)WR0.00.00.00.072%0.00.0
Mark Ingram (IND-2022)RB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
C.J. StroudQB0.00.00.00.075%0.00.0
Jonathan Taylor (BAL-2022)RB0.00.00.00.078%0.00.0
Joe Mixon (DEN-2023)RB0.00.00.00.082%0.00.0
Aaron Jones (DAL-2022)RB0.00.00.00.081%0.00.0
Chris Carson (LAR-2022)RB0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Davante Adams (PIT-2024)WR0.00.00.00.081%0.00.0
Derrick Henry (CHI-2023)RB0.00.00.00.076%0.00.0
Mark Ingram (TEN-2022)RB0.00.00.00.070%0.00.0
Jordan LoveQB0.00.00.00.084%0.00.0
Jonathan Taylor (WAS-2022)RB0.00.00.00.071%0.00.0
AJ Dillon (CAR-2022)RB0.00.00.00.070%0.00.0
Dalvin Cook (NE-2023)RB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
A.J. Brown (CIN-2024)WR0.00.00.00.081%0.00.0
Aaron Jones (ATL-2024)RB0.00.00.00.081%0.00.0
Joe Mixon (LAC-2022)RB0.00.00.00.076%0.00.0
Aaron Jones (NYJ-2022)RB0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Derek CarrQB0.00.00.00.074%0.00.0
Aaron RodgersQB0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Joe Mixon (DET-2023)RB0.00.00.00.083%0.00.0
DeAndre Washington (LAC-2022)WR0.00.00.00.071%0.00.0
DeAndre Washington (LAR-2024)WR0.00.00.00.084%0.00.0
Davis MillsQB0.00.00.00.082%0.00.0
Justin Jefferson (IND-2023)WR0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Derrick Henry (SF-2024)RB0.00.00.00.074%0.00.0
Matt RyanQB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
Patrick MahomesQB0.00.00.00.077%0.00.0
Chris Carson (MIN-2023)RB0.00.00.00.075%0.00.0
A.J. Brown (TB-2023)WR0.00.00.00.084%0.00.0
Elijah Mitchell (LAC-2024)RB0.00.00.00.085%0.00.0
Dalvin Cook (CHI-2022)RB0.00.00.00.080%0.00.0
Mark Ingram (NE-2022)RB0.00.00.00.084%0.00.0
Matthew StaffordQB0.00.00.00.082%0.00.0
Stefon Diggs (KC-2023)WR0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
Jacoby BrissettQB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
Michael Carter (GB-2023)RB0.00.00.00.079%0.00.0
Mike Evans (HOU-2024)WR0.00.00.00.078%0.00.0
CeeDee Lamb (WAS-2022)WR0.00.00.00.077%0.00.0
Derrick Henry (ARI-2024)RB0.00.00.00.075%0.00.0