Projection Engine
Ensemble v2.0Advanced ensemble methodology combining EWMA, 3-Year Average, RTM, and SOS adjustments
Ensemble Weights
Adjust algorithm weights (must sum to 1.0)
EWMA Weight0.35
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average
3-Year Avg Weight0.30
Three-year historical average
RTM Weight0.20
Regression to Mean adjustment
SOS Weight0.15
Strength of Schedule factor
Total:1.00
Weekly Projection Range
Floor, projected, and ceiling values across the season
- Ceiling
- Projected
- Floor
Player Projections
| Player | Pos | Team | EWMA | 3-Yr Avg | RTM | Ensemble | Confidence | Floor | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Joe Mixon (LAR-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Aaron Jones (DAL-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor (SF-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Calvin Ridley (BUF-2023) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jeff Wilson (CIN-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Melvin Gordon (PIT-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mike Evans (SF-2024) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mark Ingram (IND-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor (BAL-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Joe Mixon (DEN-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Aaron Jones (DAL-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Chris Carson (LAR-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Davante Adams (PIT-2024) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Derrick Henry (CHI-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mark Ingram (TEN-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jordan Love | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor (WAS-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| AJ Dillon (CAR-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Dalvin Cook (NE-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| A.J. Brown (CIN-2024) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Aaron Jones (ATL-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Joe Mixon (LAC-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Aaron Jones (NYJ-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Derek Carr | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Joe Mixon (DET-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| DeAndre Washington (LAC-2022) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| DeAndre Washington (LAR-2024) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Davis Mills | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Justin Jefferson (IND-2023) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Derrick Henry (SF-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Chris Carson (MIN-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| A.J. Brown (TB-2023) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Elijah Mitchell (LAC-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Dalvin Cook (CHI-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mark Ingram (NE-2022) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Stefon Diggs (KC-2023) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Michael Carter (GB-2023) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Mike Evans (HOU-2024) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| CeeDee Lamb (WAS-2022) | WR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77% | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Derrick Henry (ARI-2024) | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75% | 0.0 | 0.0 |